Pre season predictions 4

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Buck Showalter introduced as Orioles Manager in July 2010; courtesy Fox Sports

Pat

Here we go with the AL spring training picks for the 2014 season. I am not really sure who the strongest division in the American League is, so I will just go ahead and start with the AL East. In the past, this division was always considered the strongest in the AL, with the Yankees and Red Sox spending lots of money and everybody else chasing them. This year, the West looks pretty strong. I can’t see the Red Sox repeating this year and the Yankees will  probably play better than they look although I can’t see them really contending for the division. The Rays have contended the past several years with a tiny payroll, a testament to Joe Madden.

But this year I see the division going to the Orioles. I think they finally have the confidence under Buck Showalter to seal the deal in the AL East. I know this crazy, but despite a terrible home stadium and bad fan support, I have the Tampa Bay Rays taking second place and contending for a wild card spot. Third is the Red Sox, a game or two back of Tampa Bay still possibly contending for the second wild card. Then comes the Yankees in fourth, a couple of games behind Boston. I see only three or four games between first and fourth in the AL East.  Then of course bringing up the rear is Toronto a few games back of the Yankees, improving some but not enough to contend.

I see the Red Sox falling due to age and injury. I can’t see the pitching holding up without major injuries and the offense is aging and their youth not quite ready to take the reins. The Yankees’ pitching can’t hold up and without A-Rod they have a couple of very good players and a bunch of journeymen, not enough to contend in this division.

Masha

OK, I have to say it – there is no way the Orioles take the division, not if history tells us anything. Let’s take a look at Buck Showalter’s history as a manager. With the Yankees, he fell apart in the third year – and they won the World Series the next year; with the Diamondbacks, he fell apart in the third year – and they won the World Series the next year; with the Rangers, he fell apart in the fourth year, (sorry Texas, no World Series). Yes, he wins the Manager of the Year awards; he’s a good short-term manager. But he was hired by the Orioles as manager in July  2010, and I’m thinking this is the year his curse sets in. So, I don’t agree with Pat; the Orioles don’t win the AL East. I believe the Red Sox and the Rays are going to fight it out, with the Rays coming in second. Then Orioles third, Yankees fourth, and, Oh Canada, Toronto last.

Pondering the American League

Rockies vs. Cardinals, Coors Field

Pat

So I’ve finished picking my favorites in the National League for the upcoming 2014 season. Now it’s time to pick the American League. As I study the depth charts for AL teams, I find that I don’t know these players as well as I know the NL players. Why is this? Well, I am a national league guy. I live in a national league city with the Colorado Rockies. I was raised in St. Louis and am still a huge Cardinal fan. But come on, I have the MLB package on Direct TV and I can watch any game I want and in fact every game if I want to. But I don’t watch much of the American League. Why is that, really?

I’ll tell you why. It’s not as good as national league baseball. There are fewer close games, and it’s way less strategic than an NL game, so it’s just less compelling to watch and follow. Why is that? The designated hitter. You know it’s cheating, right? They use ten players in a game instead of nine. I still can’t believe major league baseball allowed the American League change the rules just for their league. Can you imagine the AFC conference in the NFL wanting a more offensive conference by changing the rules to allow twelve players on offense just for the AFC? The NFL would never allow it. I still wonder what baseball was thinking when they allowed this happen. I read an article recently about how the NL should just go ahead and institute the DH. Man, I hope that never happens.

When my wife and I are at a Rockies game or watching a game on TV, we discuss strategy all the time. So you think they will bunt in this situation? How about a suicide squeeze to take the lead here or should they go for the big inning? With a change to break the game open, should they pinch hit for the pitcher or keep him in the game since he’s still pitching well? These are all decisions the AL manager does not have to think about. They are important managerial decisions that can change the game in the NL, making the NL game a lot more fun to watch.

I snuck onto my soap box, and here I go again. I don’t think the AL will ever get rid of the DH, but it is my sincere hope that the NL never adopts this rule. The DH makes baseball a worse game in my humble opinion. I will never watch as many AL games as I do the NL because it’s just not as compelling to me. But, next blog I will go ahead and make my AL picks for the 2014 season.  I just won’t care quite as much.

Masha

I too was raised a National League fan. I too hate the DH, but for slightly different reasons than Pat, or maybe additional reasons. My problem with the DH, and the reason that many of my friends love the DH is because it reduces baseball to hitting. Only hitting. Big home runs, big hitters, big bats. You score more than the other team and you win. Yes, that’s the basis for baseball, but not the only compelling thing about it. And hitting the white ball is not the only thing going on in a major league baseball game, or shouldn’t be.

I love a pitcher’s duel. There is greatness in the crafty left-hander fooling a big hitter. Some of the best baseball games I’ve ever attended have been 1-0 games, with two amazing pitchers on the mound doing a great job. The games also went quickly (one of the arguments for the DH I’ve heard), and no one threw over 100 pitches. But in the NL, the pitcher has to be more than just the guy throwing the ball. He has to be able to make contact, even if it’s just a bunt. The teams that do well in the NL have great hitting pitchers. Hang on here, *sigh*, this is just going to feed into Pat’s baseball ego, but the Cardinals are one of those teams and their record shows it. If your pitcher can hit reasonably well in addition to pitching a great game, the game takes on an additional layer of strategy. Do I leave this guy in because he’s batting .278, better than the pinch-hitter I might slot in for him, even though he’s got 98 pitches?

Fans of the DH will argue that it’s the very rare pitcher who can hit well and that a pitcher is usually a guaranteed out. As a baseball fan, I’ve seen pitchers surprise everyone, including himself, by getting a seeing-eye single when the team needed it most. And that moment of surprise is worth more than 3 homeruns to me.

So take your big hitters, American League, and leave me to my hitting pitchers. I prefer strategizing whether I should bunt here, or wondering why my manager is leaving this pitcher in, to watching a small white ball sail over a fence. It’s just more interesting to me.

Rashard Mendenhall – A Fond Farewell

Masha

Rashard Mendenhall announced his retirement yesterday. Among the free agents that would have been very popular in today’s free agency, Rashard has made an impact for both the Steelers and the Cardinals. He has a Super Bowl ring from Super Bowl XLIII. His college career was stellar. And now he’s retiring at 26 yeas old.

ESPN’s football experts have expressed shock that a 26-year-old would retire. Twitter went crazy. And I’m blogging about it. And I think I’m one of the few that admires Rashard’s decision. I’ve linked his announcement so you can read for yourselves, but I think Rashard is retiring for all the right reasons.

He’s accomplished everything anyone could dream of in football, including the difficult-to-attain Super Bowl ring. He’s a talented writer who has filled his life with other interests, along with football. He’s now following a dream of his to become a writer. Good for him, he’s following the advice of every business person on the speaker’s tour – do what you love and you’ll love what you do. He doesn’t love football anymore, he likes it. It sounds like he’s always “liked” football. But he loves writing. He’s going to write.

So bravo to Rashard for deciding to follow his heart. May we all be so lucky.

“Choose a job you love and you will never have to work a day in your life.” — Confucius

Rashard Mendenhall retirement announcement

Pre-season predictions 3

Pat

And finally, we have the NL East. This one is a tough pick. The Braves took the division without any challenge at all last year. I don’t think that will happen this year. In fact, I am going to pick the Washington Nationals to win this division. Injuries killed the Nats last year and just looking at the depth chart, I feel they have a better starting pitching rotation and the bull pens about even. I also think that the Nats’ offense is stronger than the Braves this year. So I do think that the Braves will take second and contend for a wild card birth. That puts Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta challenging for 2 wild card slots.

I think the Phillies will play a little bit better than they did last year, but only good enough for third place in the East. They need to stay healthy and pitch way better than they did last year. That puts the Mets in fourth place in the division although I do see improvements with them. Not quite ready to contend, but they seem to be heading in the right direction.  Obviously the Marlins are bringing up the rear, as they were last year. I can’t quite see what direction the Marlins are going; we’ll have to see how well their young players perform this year.

So to recap the National League. I have the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Nationals winning the divisions. The Pirates, Diamondbacks and Braves will contend for the two wild card spots.  It’s always fun to see how many I get right. It’s hard to pick this early, but it’s also a fun exercise.

Pre-season predictions 2

Pat

I started with the NL Central, so in order of strength of division, I will go to the NLWest. It’s obvious that the Los Angeles Dodgers have the most money to spend in the NL West and are not afraid to spend it. I hate to pick the Dodgers to win the division, but I just have to. Take a look at the 5 starting pitchers, they are scary. I think they are a little weak at second and third base, but the outfield, shortstop and first base should be able to provide enough offense  for that pitching staff. It will be interesting to see what Puig’s second major season looks like and it sounds like Kemp is unhappy to be the fourth outfielder. How much trouble will he make in the locker room? But I do believe they have enough strong veterans in that locker room to take the NL West.

At number two in NL West, I have the Arizona Diamondbacks. It will be interesting how well their pitching holds up this year. I think shortstop is suspect, but they have improved their offense with Mark Trumbo in left field. Will Mr. Goldschmidt have another year like last year? Some questions and some answers, but this team is tough at home and I think they will compete for one of the wild card spots. Third in this division, believe it or not, is the Colorado Rockies. They have added Justin Morneau and Drew Stubbs for more offense and more depth and this offense should be amazing. The starting pitching actually looks pretty strong with De La Rosa, Chacin and Anderson as the first three in their rotation. The bull pen is a question mark, but I still think this team has improved and will finish third in the tough NL West.

I’ve got the San Francisco Giants in fourth, playing about the same as last year but with tougher competition. Bringing up the rear is the San Diego Padres who have done little to improve their team when the rest of the division have.

MLB preseason predictions 1

Pat

How cool is it to go to MLB.com and find scores? The preseason is upon us! I love it. This is the time of the year that I like to look at the depth charts for each team and predict how they will place in their division. I have found that even though there are so many factors in a 162-game season, including injuries, over-achieving rookies, under-achieving veterans and so on, this is still a great time of the season to predict how they will fair in the coming season.

Since I am a national league guy, I will start with the National League and because I am a Cardinal fan, I will start with the NL Central.  This may be the best division in baseball. I still think the NL Central is going to be a very strong division this year. I think the Cardinals have actually improved a bit. So I pick them yet again to win the division. The Pirates will have increased confidence and have a strong veteran club. I pick them second in the division and grabbing one of the wild card spots. With a new manager and lack of depth, the Reds are a big question mark. Their starting pitching is very strong and Chapman is a crazy good closer, but the offense looks weak to me and I will put them in third just missing out on the wild card.

The bottom – it’s a toss up between the Brewers and the Cubs. Neither team has improved significantly, so I am going to take the Cubs fourth just under five hundred with the Brewers a game or two behind them. Not a lot of change from last year. I just can’t see that anybody has done enough to knock the Cardinals out of first.

Masha

Let’s start by my saying that you can tell my husband loves me – he didn’t put the Cubs in last place. I’m a Cub fan, despite winters of trying to wean myself away from the frustration and self-hatred. It’s a nightmare living with a Cardinals fan and was a discussion when we first met… I know, right? How could any self-respecting Cub fan marry a Cardinals fan?

But I do agree that the Brewers will find themselves in last place. It’s hard to believe that a team can outdo the Cubs in dysfunction, but I believe the Brewers may be able to do that this year. The Return of Ryan Braun will contribute to this dysfunction in a meaningful way. First, it will be interesting to see the reception he receives from the crowd on the home opener. I’ve heard a wide range of responses from people in Milwaukee, ranging from ‘happy to have him back’ to ‘he’s a slimeball.’ Second, I think he’s going to work so hard to prove that he deserves their love, he’s going to struggle. Baseball is a game where you can’t force performance – it’s almost magical. The harder you push, the more likely you are to fail. Braun will have to work against my third point, the drug hangover. The question in the back of his mind, the question in everyone’s mind – was my great performance only due to the drugs? It’s a slippery slope when you use something to improve performance. You forget that you are a talented player and see any improvements as a function of the drugs. So once you don’t have the drugs, there’s a hangover of sorts, that doubt in your own mind, true or not, that you can’t do the job. I think this is going to create an environment for the Brewers that will keep them from being successful this year.

Go Cubbies.

Win one for the Gipper – Happy Birthday Knute Rockne

Knute Rockne, photo courtesy of the University of Notre Dame.

Knute Rockne, photo courtesy of the University of Notre Dame.

Happy Birthday Knute Rockne. Born in 1888, Rockne played and coached for the University of Notre Dame, popularizing the forward pass and creating a football powerhouse in the process.

He was known for his inspirational locker room speeches, including a speech in 1928 quoting the 1920 death-bed words of one of his players, George “Gipper” Gipp:  “I’ve got to go, Rock. It’s all right. I’m not afraid. Some time, Rock, when the team is up against it, when things are going wrong and the breaks are beating the boys, tell them to go in there with all they’ve got and win just one for the Gipper. I don’t know where I’ll be then, Rock. But I’ll know about it, and I’ll be happy.” The “Fighting Irish” team was losing to Army, 6-0, at the end of the half, Rockne gave this speech at half time. It inspired the team, who then outscored Army in the second half and won the game, 12-6.

The fragile golf swing

Pat

I’ve always said that the golf swing does not come natural to me. I played baseball as a kid and into high school and college. I blamed the baseball swing on my lack of skills with my golf swing. The other day I mentioned to my club pro how fragile my golf swing was. He said everybody’s gold swing is fragile, just watch the PGA Tour. I figured he was just humoring me to make me feel better. But I do watch the PGA and after watching Rory Mcilroy melt down on Sunday at the Honda Classic, I have finally come to the conclusion that golf is the most difficult game we humans play. Masha and I watch a lot of golf together and when a pro doesn’t get out of a sand trap or hits one into the water or misses a fairway by 50 yards, we say that makes us feel a lot better about our game. As mean as that sounds, it’s really true.

If a professional golfer making a good living playing golf, practicing most every day and repeating his golf swing hundreds of times a day can hit a terrible shot at anytime, we hackers playing once a week haven’t got a chance. So when I go out a hit some really good shots along with my really bad shots, I am going feel better about my game and enjoy being out on a beautiful golf course instead of complaining about a very fragile golf swing.

Masha

I laughed when I saw the title of today’s blog. Pat is a natural athlete and was used to many sports coming to him easily, so when golf didn’t fall in line with baseball, archery, basketball, softball, tennis, swimming, and football, it was a shock. We play a lot of golf (I’ll play more after knee replacement surgery but that’s another blog for another day…), and are always amazed at how quickly the golf swing can break down. I curse the Scots each and every round for coming up with a swing that is uncomfortable, unnatural, and ungainly, and that’s when you’re doing it  correctly – imagine what it’s like when it’s off just a bit, also known as my swing.

So we laugh in the “misery loves company” chortle that all golfers share when the guys who make money doing this sport miss a shot. Or two. Or even three. And we nod our heads sagely when the 24-year-old breaks under the stress of Sunday’s final round. Even when Rory McIlroy is 86 years old, he’ll play a better, more consistent ball than I do. But as supple as his 24-year-old body is, his swing is still fragile, the balls still go in the water and skate by the holes. Golf is just a difficult sport. As Pat says frequently – “And that’s why they call it golf, f@#$ was already taken.”

Congratulations to Russell Henley for hanging in there on a Sunday when everyone’s swing was fragile.

Happy Birthday Mario Andretti

Mario Andretti at the Circuit of the Americas Hospitality Party 2012

Masha

When I was 15, my Dad decided to let me learn to drive a bit early. We would go out to Great Salt Lake and drive around on the dirt roads, him gently giving me direction on speed, control, and life lessons in general. Once I got my license, the control and life lesson stayed, but the speed advice faded. He started calling my by two names – A.J. and Mario. Now, I’m sure the monikers were meant to get me to slow down, but of course they had the opposite effect. I thought A.J. Foyt was one of the most amazing Indy car drivers I had ever seen, and who didn’t think Mario Andretti was a handsome man, no matter what he did. The addition of being a race car driver just made him all the more attractive.

And look at this guy – today is his 74th birthday and he looks dynamite. As a friend of mine would say, he’s a stone fox. Sigh…

So ask Pat, I still haven’t slowed down, as my many speeding tickets can attest, but I still like to be called Mario every once in a while, as long as it’s not Super Mario!