Pre season predictions 4

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Buck Showalter introduced as Orioles Manager in July 2010; courtesy Fox Sports

Pat

Here we go with the AL spring training picks for the 2014 season. I am not really sure who the strongest division in the American League is, so I will just go ahead and start with the AL East. In the past, this division was always considered the strongest in the AL, with the Yankees and Red Sox spending lots of money and everybody else chasing them. This year, the West looks pretty strong. I can’t see the Red Sox repeating this year and the Yankees will  probably play better than they look although I can’t see them really contending for the division. The Rays have contended the past several years with a tiny payroll, a testament to Joe Madden.

But this year I see the division going to the Orioles. I think they finally have the confidence under Buck Showalter to seal the deal in the AL East. I know this crazy, but despite a terrible home stadium and bad fan support, I have the Tampa Bay Rays taking second place and contending for a wild card spot. Third is the Red Sox, a game or two back of Tampa Bay still possibly contending for the second wild card. Then comes the Yankees in fourth, a couple of games behind Boston. I see only three or four games between first and fourth in the AL East.  Then of course bringing up the rear is Toronto a few games back of the Yankees, improving some but not enough to contend.

I see the Red Sox falling due to age and injury. I can’t see the pitching holding up without major injuries and the offense is aging and their youth not quite ready to take the reins. The Yankees’ pitching can’t hold up and without A-Rod they have a couple of very good players and a bunch of journeymen, not enough to contend in this division.

Masha

OK, I have to say it – there is no way the Orioles take the division, not if history tells us anything. Let’s take a look at Buck Showalter’s history as a manager. With the Yankees, he fell apart in the third year – and they won the World Series the next year; with the Diamondbacks, he fell apart in the third year – and they won the World Series the next year; with the Rangers, he fell apart in the fourth year, (sorry Texas, no World Series). Yes, he wins the Manager of the Year awards; he’s a good short-term manager. But he was hired by the Orioles as manager in July  2010, and I’m thinking this is the year his curse sets in. So, I don’t agree with Pat; the Orioles don’t win the AL East. I believe the Red Sox and the Rays are going to fight it out, with the Rays coming in second. Then Orioles third, Yankees fourth, and, Oh Canada, Toronto last.

Pre-season predictions 3

Pat

And finally, we have the NL East. This one is a tough pick. The Braves took the division without any challenge at all last year. I don’t think that will happen this year. In fact, I am going to pick the Washington Nationals to win this division. Injuries killed the Nats last year and just looking at the depth chart, I feel they have a better starting pitching rotation and the bull pens about even. I also think that the Nats’ offense is stronger than the Braves this year. So I do think that the Braves will take second and contend for a wild card birth. That puts Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta challenging for 2 wild card slots.

I think the Phillies will play a little bit better than they did last year, but only good enough for third place in the East. They need to stay healthy and pitch way better than they did last year. That puts the Mets in fourth place in the division although I do see improvements with them. Not quite ready to contend, but they seem to be heading in the right direction.  Obviously the Marlins are bringing up the rear, as they were last year. I can’t quite see what direction the Marlins are going; we’ll have to see how well their young players perform this year.

So to recap the National League. I have the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Nationals winning the divisions. The Pirates, Diamondbacks and Braves will contend for the two wild card spots.  It’s always fun to see how many I get right. It’s hard to pick this early, but it’s also a fun exercise.